There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. But it's also not unprecedented. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Found an error on our site? Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Outstanding. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. That's 14 in a row. But it's still indicative of widespread support. It gets a lot more interesting. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Republicans have paid some attention. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Not anymore. 2020 Election (1210) President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. It is easy to gloss over this. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Demographics (84) who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. 12. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. This county voted with the popular vote each time. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Want to dive deeper? Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. Trump won 18 of the 19. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Have information that relates to fraud in this election? "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Their emotions and decision making process are real. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. The divisions were everywhere. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. They simply vote on merit. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Until this year. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. All rights reserved. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Ron Elving . Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. 03:30. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? 2016 Election (1135) (The highest value being again 66.1%). (i.e. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania .
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